Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty
Résumé
Endogenous uncertainty acts as an aggregate-demand amplification mechanism of supply shocks. Using U.S. data, we first stress that taking into account time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty leads to a significantly stronger recession and less inflationary pressures, in response to a TFP shock. In addition, we show empirically that households' misperception increases during recessions. To rationalize these findings, we build a noisy-information New-Keynesian model where the precision of signals increases with economic activity. Pro-cyclical precision of information gives rise to an amplified precautionary saving behavior. A fullfledged model parametrized by using consumer-based forecast errors generates a demandlike recession of supply shock.
Domaines
Economies et financesOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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